№ 0192026-08-24 17:25:20ZSHORT DOGE/USDTstopped out
Short DOGE continuation: -2.42\u03c3 momentum, EMA20<EMA50, 7.6x volume, funding pays shorts
Trend and momentum agree: 48-candle momentum is -3.84% at -2.42\u03c3 with EMA20 under EMA50 and directional volume proxy at -47.8M quote over the last 12 candles, so the 7.60x volume candle reads as continued distribution rather than a lone print. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h and basis at +0.0046% mean the short collects carry instead of paying it, so the hold is not negative-expectancy. Stop at 1.12% is roughly 1.6x the 0.70% ATR and target at 1.82% is about 2.6x, giving 1.62 R:R, workable against 0.405% realised 5m vol. The reservation is RSI(14) at 27.0 on a 7.6x volume flush: that combination is as consistent with capitulation as with continuation, which is why size stays at 3x isolated and confidence is middling.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 0.0903 on comparable volume, or RSI lifting off 27 while price holds above the EMA20, says the flush was exhaustion and the short is wrong.
- fill
- 6,496 @ 0.08912 → 0.09017
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.58
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-7.06
№ 0182026-08-24 17:25:15ZSHORT XRP/USDTstopped out
Short XRP on -1.71σ momentum break with 2.57x volume and EMA20 under EMA50
Momentum, trend and flow agree: -2.76% over 48 candles at -1.71σ, EMA20 below EMA50, and directional volume proxy at -87.7M quote units over the last 12 candles, with the last candle printing 2.57x average volume, so the break is being paid for. Stop at 1.19% is roughly 1.6x ATR (0.74%) and about 2.8x the 0.419% realised 5m vol, which is wide enough to survive normal chop, and R:R of 1.63 to 1.4462 is acceptable. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short, and basis at -0.0163% is a mild carry tailwind. The drag is RSI(14) at 29.1: already oversold, so entry is chasing an extended move, which is why conviction sits at 0.319 and size stays at 3x isolated.
Invalidation: A reclaim of the EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 1.50 or the buy-side volume proxy flipping positive would kill the thesis before the 1.4922 stop.
- fill
- 393.5 @ 1.47193 → 1.48994
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.58
- model confidence
- 45%
- realised
- $-7.38
№ 0172026-08-24 16:55:35ZSHORT ETH/USDTstopped out
Short ETH into -1.87
trend break, funding pays the short, but oversold RSI caps size
Momentum at -1.55% is -1.87 sigma with 1.66x average volume behind the last candle, and EMA20 2496.42 sits below EMA50 2497.89, so trend and momentum point the same way. Stop at 0.68% is 1.6x the 10.55 ATR and target 1.11% is 2.6x ATR, a workable 1.62 R:R for 0.254% 5m realised vol. Funding +0.0100% per 8h pays the short side and basis is already -0.0322%, so carry is not against us. Against that: RSI 32.0 is close to washed out, the EMA spread is only 0.06% wide, and the 12-candle directional volume proxy is +26.5M quote units, i.e. net buying into the drop, which is why conviction prints 0.209 and size stays at 3x.
Invalidation: A reclaim of the 2490.18 stop, or price pushing back above EMA20 2496.42 with the buy-side volume proxy expanding, kills the thesis.
- fill
- 0.234 @ 2,471.37 → 2,493.89
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.58
- model confidence
- 40%
- realised
- $-5.56
№ 0162026-08-24 14:40:34ZLONG ETH/USDTstopped out
Long ETH on +2.03σ 48-candle momentum with EMA20>EMA50 and 1.57x volume confirmation
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 2504.93 over EMA50 2493.52 with a +2.32% push that is 2.03 standard deviations rich for this symbol, and the last candle printed 1.57x average volume with a +373m quote directional proxy behind it. RSI 66.3 is firm without being pinned, so there is room before exhaustion. Stop at 0.79% is about 1.6x the 12.41 ATR and sits just under EMA20, target at 1.28% is roughly 2.6x ATR, so the 1.63 R:R is priced sensibly against 0.241% realised 5m vol. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and a -0.0391% basis are immaterial on a hold this short, which is why I take it, though the 0.256 conviction score keeps size and confidence modest.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 2504.93, which would put price into the stop zone and void the momentum thesis.
- fill
- 0.232 @ 2,524.80 → 2,504.23
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.58
- model confidence
- 54%
- realised
- $-5.06
№ 0152026-08-24 14:20:34ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped out
Long BTC continuation: +1.74σ momentum, EMA20>EMA50, stop at 1.6x ATR
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 78734.62 sits above EMA50 78405.38 and the 48-candle push of +1.53% is 1.74 sigma rich, backed by 1.46x average volume on the last candle and +162.3m quote units of net buying over the last 12 candles. RSI at 62.4 is firm without being stretched, so there is room before exhaustion. Stop at 0.61% is 1.6x the 301.84 ATR and target at 0.99% is 2.6x ATR, which is a fair ask given 0.206% realised 5m vol, and funding at 0.0100% per 8h plus a -0.0352% basis costs effectively nothing on a short hold at 3x. What keeps confidence mid is the deterministic score of 0.163 and the fact that R:R of 1.62 leaves little margin for slippage.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 at 78734.62 or momentum decaying under 1 sigma with volume falling off kills the continuation case.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 79,207.92 → 78,588.82
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.55
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-4.61
№ 0142026-08-24 12:55:34ZLONG ETH/USDTstopped out
Long ETH continuation: +2.28\u03c3 momentum on 4.09x volume, stop at 1.6x ATR
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 2490.78 over EMA50 2478.15, momentum +2.40% at 2.28 sigma, and the trigger candle printed 4.09x average volume with directional volume proxy +806.8m quote over 12 candles, so the impulse has real participation behind it. Stop at 2497.58 is 0.61% away, about 1.6x the 9.61 ATR and roughly 2.8x the 0.217% realised 5m vol, so it is not sitting inside the noise, and the 0.99% target gives 1.63 R:R. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis at -0.0165% are negligible on a 3x isolated hold of this duration, so carry is not the issue. The caveat is location: RSI 72.7 and entry 2512.96 sits about 0.9% above EMA20, meaning any snap back toward the mean takes out the stop before the target, which is why this is a moderate conviction fill rather than a strong one.
Invalidation: A close back below 2497.58, or a rejection candle that drags price back under EMA20 at 2490.78, kills the continuation thesis.
- fill
- 0.235 @ 2,514.94 → 2,498.23
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 60%
- realised
- $-4.22
№ 0132026-08-24 12:55:30ZLONG BNB/USDTstopped out
Long BNB continuation: +1.8σ momentum, 1.92x volume, EMA20>EMA50, tight 1.6ATR stop
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 703.68 over EMA50 701.95 with +1.54% over 48 candles at 1.80σ, and the last candle printed 1.92x average volume with +13.98M quote units of directional flow behind it. Stop at 704.17 is 0.38% away, roughly 1.6x the 1.685 ATR, so it sits outside normal 5m noise (realised vol 0.145%) without being sloppy, and the 0.62% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at 0.0061% per 8h and basis of 0.047% are negligible for a move expected to resolve in hours, so carry is not a factor. RSI 67.1 is extended but not yet at exhaustion, which is why conviction is 0.244 and size stays modest at 3x isolated.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 at 703.68 on rising volume, or a print through 704.17, kills the continuation thesis.
- fill
- 0.83 @ 707.064 → 704.169
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-2.70
№ 0122026-08-24 12:55:15ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped out
Long BTC continuation: +3.72\u03c3 momentum on 4.13x volume with EMA20 over EMA50
Momentum and trend agree: +2.70% over 48 candles at 3.72 standard deviations, EMA20 78393.07 above EMA50 78001.43, and the last candle printed 4.13x average volume with directional volume proxy at +1.18B quote over 12 candles, so the push is being paid for, not drifting. Stop at 78748.99 is 0.48% away, roughly 1.6x ATR(14) of 238.00 and about 3x the 0.163% realised 5m vol, so it sits outside routine noise without being loose; target 0.78% is about 2.6 ATR for 1.62 R:R. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and a slightly negative basis of -0.0125% mean carry is close to irrelevant on a short 3x isolated hold, and the perp is not trading at a crowded long premium. Main reservation is entry price: RSI 76.2 plus a 3.72\u03c3 extension means we are buying late in the impulse, so the target needs fresh continuation rather than mean reversion.
Invalidation: A close back below 78748.99, or momentum stalling with volume fading back to the 48-candle average while price holds under EMA20, kills the continuation case.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 79,148.63 → 78,722.67
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.55
- model confidence
- 63%
- realised
- $-3.26
№ 0112026-08-24 12:35:13ZLONG BTC/USDTtarget hit
Long BTC continuation: +2.79σ momentum on 2.87x volume with EMA20 over EMA50
Momentum and trend agree: +1.95% over 48 candles at 2.79 sigma with EMA20 78148.65 above EMA50 77849.46, and the 2.87x volume expansion plus +885.8M quote directional proxy says buyers are doing the work rather than a thin drift. Stop at 0.44% is about 1.6x the 214.36 ATR and roughly 2.8x realised 5m vol of 0.157%, so it sits outside noise while the 0.71% target keeps R:R at 1.62. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h costs almost nothing on a move expected to resolve in hours, and RSI 65.2 is strong without being stretched. The one thing I don't love: entry is 0.49% above EMA20, so we are paying up, and the stop effectively rests right on that EMA at 78187.93.
Invalidation: A close back under EMA20 78148.65, or the volume expansion fading while price stalls below 79088, means the impulse is done and the stop should do its job.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 78,525.71 → 79,114.47
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.55
- model confidence
- 65%
- realised
- $+3.84
№ 0102026-08-24 12:20:34ZLONG ETH/USDTtarget hit
Long ETH on 1.61\u03c3 momentum with EMA20>EMA50 and 2.16x volume confirmation
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 2481.05 over EMA50 2471.25 with +1.68% over 48 candles at 1.61\u03c3, and the 2.16x volume expansion plus +459.6M quote directional flow says the move has real participation rather than a thin squeeze. RSI 56.4 leaves room before overbought, so this is not chasing an exhausted push. Stop at 0.57% is roughly 1.6x ATR(14) of 0.36% and about 2.6x the 0.218% realised 5m vol, wide enough not to get wicked out on noise, and the 0.93% target at 2.6 ATR is a reasonable extension for a 1.62 R:R. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis at -0.0156% are immaterial on a hold this short, so carry does not eat the edge. Conviction 0.297 is honest: the structure is clean but the edge is modest, so size accordingly at 3x isolated.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 at 2481.05, or the stop at 2474.3859 tagging on rising volume, kills the momentum premise.
- fill
- 0.235 @ 2,488.93 → 2,511.96
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $+5.12
№ 0092026-08-24 11:40:32ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped out
Long BTC continuation: +1.69 sigma momentum with 7.77x volume confirming the push
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 77795.00 over EMA50 77592.06, +1.12% over 48 candles at 1.69 sigma, and the last candle printed 7.77x average volume with directional volume proxy +380.9M quote over 12 candles, so the breakout has real participation behind it. Stop at 0.35% is 1.6x the 171.85 ATR and roughly 2.8x the 0.126% 5m realised vol, tight but not inside noise, and the 0.57% target keeps R:R at 1.62. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis of 0.0046% are immaterial for a hold this short. The reservations: RSI 74.4 and price sitting 0.72% above EMA20 mean we are buying an extended candle, which is why the deterministic score is only 0.354 and size stays at 3x isolated.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 at 77795.00, or the volume surge fading without follow-through so price retraces the 0.35% into 78083.94, kills the continuation thesis.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 78,523.22 → 78,232.39
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.55
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-2.31
№ 0082026-08-24 01:50:31ZSHORT ETH/USDTstopped out
Short ETH continuation: -1.65σ momentum, EMA20<EMA50, sell-side volume, shorts paid funding
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 2448.75 sits below EMA50 2452.19, 48-candle momentum is -1.27% (-1.65σ), and the last 12 candles show -325.5M quote units of net sell pressure with the latest candle at 1.64x average volume. Stop at 2448.67 is 0.53% away, about 1.6 ATR(14) at 8.0394, and target 2414.91 is roughly 2.6 ATR for 1.63 R:R, which is a sane geometry for 0.186% 5m realised vol. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short and basis is -0.0376%, so carry is not working against the hold. Against it: RSI 36.8 is not yet washed out, entry is 0.53% under EMA20 so we are selling into an extended leg, and the strategy's own conviction is only 0.163, hence size discipline at 3x isolated.
Invalidation: A reclaim of the EMA20 zone around 2448.75 that trips the stop, or funding/basis flipping so the short is paying to hold while momentum mean-reverts toward zero.
- fill
- 0.243 @ 2,436.01 → 2,449.43
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 54%
- realised
- $-3.56
№ 0072026-08-24 01:50:30ZSHORT BNB/USDTstopped out
Short BNB into a -1.64σ 48-candle break with EMA20 under EMA50 and heavy sell volume
Everything points the same way: momentum -1.26% at -1.64 sigma, EMA20 700.53 below EMA50 701.44, price 696.68 trading under both, RSI 35.9 with no divergence to argue against it, and 2.50x average volume alongside a -6.9M quote directional proxy that says the flow is real selling. Stop at 699.93 is 0.47%, roughly 1.6 ATR(14) at 0.29%, and about 3x the 0.161% realised 5m vol, so it sits outside normal noise without being sloppy; target at 691.40 is 0.76% for 1.62 R:R. Funding +0.0084% per 8h pays the short side, and the +0.051% basis means the perp is not already dislocated to the downside, so carry is a small tailwind rather than a drag. Low conviction at 0.328 is fair given RSI is already near oversold and we are selling into a move that has extended, so this is a small-size continuation trade, not a swing.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 699.93 puts price back inside the EMA band and kills the momentum thesis, especially if it comes on volume with the directional proxy flipping positive.
- fill
- 0.85 @ 696.521 → 699.913
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-3.18
№ 0062026-08-23 13:25:22ZLONG ETH/USDTstopped out
Long ETH momentum breakout: +1.71σ push, 6.24x volume, EMA20>EMA50 trend intact
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 2433.42 over EMA50 2423.99, +2.29% over 48 candles at 1.71 sigma, and the last candle printed 6.24x average volume with +321m quote units of directional flow behind it. Stop at 2447.16 is 0.54% away, roughly 1.6x ATR(14) of 0.34%, so it sits outside normal 5m noise of 0.257% realised vol without being sloppy, and 1.62 R:R on a 0.88% target is workable. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis of -0.0273% are negligible for a scalp of this duration. The caveat is RSI 75.6 plus a 0.354 conviction score: this is buying an extended tape, so size and the tight target are doing the risk work.
Invalidation: A close back below EMA20 at 2433.42, or the volume spike failing to follow through and price rotating to 2447.16, kills the momentum premise.
- fill
- 0.241 @ 2,462.94 → 2,448.63
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.59
- model confidence
- 52%
- realised
- $-3.74
№ 0052026-08-23 13:20:26ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped out
Long BTC continuation: +2.12σ momentum on 8.37x volume with EMA20 over EMA50
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 77198.53 sits above EMA50 76988.30 and the 48-candle push of +1.43% is 2.12 standard deviations for this symbol, confirmed by last-candle volume at 8.37x average and +337.5M quote units of net buying over the last 12 candles. Stop at 0.25% is about 1.6x the 119.46 ATR and roughly two candles of the 0.126% realised vol, tight but not noise-level, while the 0.40% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis of 0.0057% are immaterial for a hold this short at 3x. The caution is RSI 73.8 and price 77672.5 trading about 0.6% above EMA20, so entry is chasing an extended move, which is why this is a moderate rather than high conviction fill, matching the 0.501 score.
Invalidation: A close back below the EMA20 at 77198.53, or the stop at 77481.37 taken out on rising volume, means the momentum impulse has been absorbed and the long is wrong.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 77,637.95 → 77,425.11
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.54
- model confidence
- 58%
- realised
- $-1.76
№ 0042026-08-23 11:25:18ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped out
Long BTC continuation: +1.86σ momentum, 6.8x volume, EMA20>EMA50, tight 1.6R stop
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76801.64 over EMA50 76636.68, +1.35% over 48 candles at 1.86 sigma, and the last candle printed 6.80x average volume with directional flow of +243.4M quote units over 12 candles, so the impulse is real and buyer-led. Stop is 0.26% away, roughly 1.6x ATR(14) of 125.25 and about 2.4x the 0.108% realised vol per 5m bar, which is tight but not inside the noise, and R:R 1.63 clears the bar. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis 0.0057% are negligible for an intraday hold at 3x, so carry is not the issue. The caveat is RSI 76.3 plus entry at 77288 sitting well above both EMAs: this is a chase of an extended move, which is why conviction sits at 0.396 and my size stays modest.
Invalidation: A close back below the entry impulse with volume fading, or price tagging 77088.19, means the 6.8x volume spike was exhaustion rather than continuation.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 77,302.92 → 77,075.26
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.54
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-1.86
№ 0032026-08-23 05:20:22ZSHORT BTC/USDTstopped out
Short BTC continuation: -2.22
s momentum, EMA20<EMA50, funding paid to shorts
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76642.92 sits below EMA50 76876.84 while 48-candle momentum is -1.64%, a -2.22 sigma move, and the directional volume proxy is -385.7M quote units over the last 12 candles, so sellers are carrying the tape. Stop at 76403.94 is 0.46% away, roughly 1.6x the 217.82 ATR, which is wide enough to survive normal 0.131% five-minute noise, and the 0.74% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short, so carry is marginally in favour rather than against. The reservation, and why this is not a high conviction fill: RSI 27.3 with the last candle at 14.04x average volume is the signature of a flush that can retrace hard, which is where the 0.541 score comes from.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 76403.94 on continued heavy volume, or price closing back above EMA20 at 76642.92, kills the continuation thesis and marks this as a capitulation low instead.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 76,064.88 → 76,431.42
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.53
- model confidence
- 56%
- realised
- $-2.83
№ 0022026-08-23 05:10:21ZSHORT BTC/USDTtarget hit
Short BTC continuation: -1.70σ momentum with EMA20 under EMA50 and shorts collecting funding
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76789.16 sits below EMA50 76951.50 and the 48-candle move is -1.24%, a -1.70σ push, with the 12-candle directional volume proxy at -581m quote units confirming sell-side pressure. Stop at 76591.89 is 0.34% away, about 1.6x the 163.66 ATR and roughly 3x the 0.109% realised 5m vol, so it is not a noise-width stop, and the 0.56% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short, and basis at 0.0035% is negligible, so carry is not a drag. The offset is RSI 25.6 into a 7.27x volume candle, which is as consistent with capitulation and a snapback as with continuation, hence the 0.356 conviction and sizing at 3x only.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 76591.89 on continued high volume, especially with RSI lifting off 25.6 back toward the EMA20 at 76789.16, kills the continuation read.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 76,343.82 → 75,903.92
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.53
- model confidence
- 48%
- realised
- $+2.81
№ 0012026-08-23 04:50:22ZSHORT BNB/USDTstopped out
Short BNB continuation: -1.99σ momentum with EMA20 under EMA50 and 6.98x volume
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 689.02 sits below EMA50 692.28 and the 48-candle move is -2.72%, a -1.99 sigma push confirmed by 6.98x average volume and a -22.9M quote directional imbalance over the last 12 candles. Stop at 685.347 is 0.46% or roughly 1.6x the 1.9622 ATR, wide enough for 0.180% realised 5m vol, and the 0.75% target keeps R:R at 1.62. Funding at +0.0122% per 8h pays the short, so carry is a small positive rather than a drag. The reason confidence stays under 0.5 is RSI(14) at 22.3: entering a continuation short this deep into oversold territory invites a snapback that can take out a 0.46% stop on one impulse candle.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 685.347 on strong volume, or RSI lifting off 22.3 with price pushing back toward EMA20 at 689.02, kills the continuation thesis.
- fill
- 0.87 @ 682.345 → 685.713
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.60
- model confidence
- 47%
- realised
- $-3.23